Carl Butcher's Blog - The Thoughts Of A Rational Man In An Irrational World

Climate Change Really Is The New Religion

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I stumbled across this video where Lord Monckton, a well known activist who has been very vocal that climate change is not man-made, goes up against a Greenpeace activist.

Both sides are very cordial and there is no shouting whatsoever. I actually applaud the Greenpeace activist for listening and taking on board the information that Monckton states in the video. What is disturbing is that when Monckton gives the activist some very clear and well informed information she continues to state that she has faith in Greenpeace.

So that is exactly what the climate change debate has now come down to, faith. It's pretty much a religion.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 18 July 2011 20:26
 

I Survived Cyclone Yasi

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I'm happy to report that I survived Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi. The Category 5 system crossed the coast about 100km south of Cairns in the late hours of Wednesday 2nd February and continued to ravage the coast on Thursday 3rd February. 

While Cairns sustained very little damage, towns to the south of us didn't fair so well. Tully, Mission Beach and Cardwell were the hardest hit areas with roofs ripped off buildings, power lines down and tonnes of sand pushed up inland as an estimated 4m storm surge pushed the Coral Sea inland.

I spent the entire night sending tweets and getting reports from other users inside my home on my @cycloneupdate Twitter account.

I became something of an overnight celebrity with many news organisations keen to get in contact with me after I tweeted out that I would be giving a blow by blow account of Yasi as it crossed overhead. The Australian contacted me and ran this story: Cairns stayer Carl Butcher aka @cycloneupdate battens down with Twitter as Yas approaches.

I was also contacted subsequently by Channel 7, Channel 9, The ABC, 6PR in Perth and other various news organisations not only here but around the world.

My shining light is when I was contacted by CNN and appeared via Skype direct into London.

 
We were without power in Freshwater for around 65 hours, it gave my portable generator its first big test since I bought it and it came through perfectly. It was uncomfortable at night not having fans to cool you down in the muggy conditions and our hot water ran out very quickly. Other than that we're very lucky to have escaped Yasi. Cairns was pretty much back in business like nothing had happened on Monday 7th February.
 
There is still a lot of people without power or communications in the Far North, with many not expected to get power restored for several weeks. Powerlink has done aerial surveys of the high voltage power lines and found several bent like twigs.
 
Similarly Telstra and Optus have said their networks both have contained extensive damage, with many towers still offline in the region. Both operators have been quick to get generators into areas most in need to get communications back on the air.
 
The people of Tully, Mission Beach and Cardwell are going to need your help. Please donate to the Premier's Disaster Relief Appeal.
Last Updated on Monday, 18 July 2011 20:27
 

GST on Online, Overseas Purchases. Why It Actually Has Merit.

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In the past couple of weeks a campaign being waged by some of Australia's biggest retailers has been calling on the government to change laws regarding the purchase of goods online from overseas websites and retailers. As the law currently stands, purchases under $1000 are exempt from GST and other duties.

The campaign, headed by the likes of Harvey Norman, Myer, David Jones and Borders, said that applying the GST to purchases under $1000 from overseas is crucial to level the playing field and also ensuring jobs are not at risk.

The problem, is that while the idea certainly has merit, the execution of the campaign was met with severe backlash by the Australian population and the key message to consumers was lost. Gerry Harvey was gob-smacked at the vicious and hateful attacks launched at him personally from social media sites such as Twitter and Facebook. Unfortunately, Gerry only made things worse by counter attacking and completely missing the point by where he could have used social media to his advantage by actually asking the consumers for their input. Social media is a two way street Gerry!

So what were the key points of the idea that were actually lost in translation? That's the purpose of this blog post, to outline the ideas and a couple of remedies that work out for everyone.

The first problem the campaign faced was that the argument that adding a 10% GST to online, overseas sales would level the playing field completely missed its mark. I have no problem with the fact that they want to add a 10% GST to an online sale, it's just the product is still going to be far cheaper to buy at the moment due mostly in part to our high Aussie dollar. This is essentially what has caused a flurry of overseas shopping within the past year, not because consumers are trying to dodge taxes. Consumers are just chasing a better deal and who could blame them?

So the key argument that should be being made here is, is why aren't our retailers being awarded the same wholesale pricing on these products that our overseas competitors are receiving? There is obviously a massive disparity in wholesale pricing models for different regions. A famous example of this is Apple's products are significantly more expensive here in Australia compared to the US, even when factoring in local taxes and exchange rates it just doesn't add up.

Secondly, Australia doesn't have one set minimum wage requirement like in the US for instance. Our award wage system is set dependent on your industry and is significantly higher than the minimum wage of other countries. We also have other employee related expenses to consider such as compulsory superannuation, holiday loading and overtime allowances. These costs add a considerable amount to products we buy at retail here in Australia, it also means that it keeps people employed.

The problem is, is that workers keep demanding wages increase on a yearly basis and this has detrimental effects on things like inflation and keeps pushing the price of everything up. It's a never ending cycle that is only going to get worse as we chase the higher dollar. In many respects, we only have ourselves to blame for wanting more and more useless crap and outspending what we earn.

Thirdly, the campaign would have had a far better reaction from the Australian population, if the retailers had outlined the many flow on effects and benefits by collecting the GST on these sales would have had on Australia's revenue. While online, overseas sales account for a very small amount of the overall retail revenue, it is a revenue stream none the less that would benefit the public coffers.

This revenue could go towards improving public infrastructure, health, schools and in the long term, lead to reducing personal income tax. Many people hate the idea of tax but living in a free society means we all contribute to our way of life. If that means paying a little bit to make sure I can drive on a road anywhere in the country or being able to walk into any hospital and receive free health care then so be it.

Now that I've outlined those few key points the only other argument left to debunk is how this revenue would actually be collected. Many people have thrown around the line that if this was left up to customs to administer, the cost to implement would far outweigh any benefit we'd receive.

So this is where I'd take a leaf out of California's tax code as one example. California has a separate state tax that sets it apart from many of the other US states and as such they have mandated that any out of state purchases imported into California are subject to the state tax. The tax is collected on the personal income statements lodged during tax time each year in the US.

This system takes the burden off bureaucrats and makes taxpayers liable for their own purchases. Yes there are potential downsides to this scheme with some people not declaring all of their purchases, but nether the less the great majority do for the most part, play fair. Of course, if you don't declare and happen to be audited, the discrepancies will be found in the long run.

Consumers simply keep their receipts for the financial year and then declare the expenses on their yearly tax refund. The amount is deducted from their tax refund. It's a simple system, with very little overhead. Essentially, consumers would fill out a cut down version of a BAS.

I'm sure there are other creative ideas and ways this could be implemented but simply looking at something from one standpoint and not checking it out from the other side also just adds a level of ignorance to what is at the core, essentially a very good idea, just poorly executed.

Last Updated on Monday, 18 July 2011 20:27
 

My 15 Minutes of Internet Fame

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After seeing a friend's great quote on Facebook I took the opportunity to post it to Twitter. Little did I know that less than 48 hours later that tweet had been "re-tweeted" thousands of times by people around the globe including Richard Dawkins himself.

Here is the quote:

"Pope says atheists pick & choose their morals. Correct. Today I will be frowning on child abuse & not having a problem with homosexuality."

So many people have contacted me and said what a fantastic and well summed up quote it is. If everyone could just live life to the best of their ability and be kind to their fellow man, that's morals we can all live by.

I cannot lay claim to the actual quote, I've since found out that the quote originated from a Twitter user in the UK: @A_McLordy, the true praise should go to him. Thanks for a great quote mate.

Follow me on Twitter at @carloscomputers

Last Updated on Monday, 18 July 2011 20:27
 

A Review Of The Cyclone Warning System Needed

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There's been a lot of talk in the media lately about a possible review of the cyclone warning system after Tropical Cyclone Tasha crossed the coast south of Cairns on Christmas Day. While TC Tasha was a relatively weak category 1 cyclone, it caught a lot of people off guard as the night before it was only classed as a weak tropical low but then developed wind gusts of up to 100km/h in the early hours of 25th December 2010.

Some ideas being thrown about at the moment include adopting Western Australia's "colour coded" warning system which alerts local communities to the potential risk of developing weather patterns. The colour coded system is used before cyclones form and during severe weather events also. It has proven to work and communities in the Gulf of Carpentaria have also adopted the system.

The other idea is to use a mobile SMS warning system, similar to ones set up to alert residents of bushfire threats in the southern states. There are a lot of people who don't watch TV or listen to the radio frequently, there are also people who don't have Internet services, so an SMS system would be a great compliment to the existing media alerts.

Currently the cyclone warning system comprises of 4 levels.

1. The Cyclone Outlook

A cyclone outlook is issued daily by the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) during the cyclone season. A cyclone outlook evaluates potential threats during a 3-day outlook period. The outlooks are not broadcast by the media and are for interested parties only.


2. The Cyclone Bulletin

A cyclone bulletin is issued when a cyclone forms but is more than 48 hours from effecting the coastline or won't effect the coastline at all. These bulletins are similar to the outlook as they are not required to be broadcast and are for interested parties only.


3. The Cyclone Watch

A cyclone watch is issued when a cyclone is expected to effect the coastline within 48 hours. These are broadcast on local media every 6 hours or every 3 hours as the threat becomes more serious.


4. The Cyclone Warning

The cyclone warning is issued when a cyclone threat is imminent and landfall is expected within 24 hours. These are broadcast every 3 hours or every hour when a cyclone is close to the coast.

So with that being said, what would be my recommendations?

An SMS system should be set up so alerts can be sent to mobiles. This would be an opt-out system, meaning anyone living in a cyclone region would automatically be registered with the service from the get go.

The cyclone outlook should be treated a little more seriously and perhaps these could start being broadcast daily in the evening local news during the weather as a precaution. Along with printing it daily in the local paper as well as in the morning news on local radio.

Introducing a 3rd tier level that operates before a Watch, but higher than an Outlook that could be broadcast every 6 hours if an Outlook predicts cyclone potential above the "Very Low" or <5% category. Using the current Cyclone Bulletin system would be an option here.

I would also like to see the Watch system go from updating every 6 hours to being updated every 3 hours. A 6 hour gap between updates is far too long. Similarly, the Warning period should be shortened from 3 hours to 2 hours.

Also don't forget that resources like Twitter and Facebook are great. The local Cairns Disaster Co-ordination Centre is on Facebook and they interact with the users regularly, as do the local authorities on Twitter like the Queensland Police Service. Also don't forget, I myself run a cyclone update service on Twitter. Follow @cycloneupdate for information.

Last Updated on Monday, 18 July 2011 20:28
 


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